FORECASTING HAZARDOUS AND RISK FACTORS IN MANUFACTURING USING FORESIGHT METHODOLOGY
Keywords:
Keywords: Foresight methodology, risk assessment, manufacturing hazards, occupational safety, environmental impact, risk managementAbstract
Abstract. Hazardous and risk factors in manufacturing processes pose significant threats to
economic efficiency, worker safety, and environmental sustainability. This study applies foresight
methodology to identify, assess, and prioritize these risk factors systematically. Physical hazards,
such as equipment failures and working at heights, were found to have the highest risk, while
chemical leaks and environmental hazards were medium-high, and psycho-social hazards were of
medium risk. A matrix-based assessment was used to evaluate the probability and impact of each
factor, providing a scientific basis for strategic decision-making, resource allocation, and proactive
risk management. The results demonstrate that foresight methodology enables enterprises to
implement preventive measures, optimize operations, and enhance overall safety and efficiency.
References
Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (2009). Futures Research Methodology – Version 3.0. The
Millennium Project.
Voros, J. (2003). A Generic Foresight Process Framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21.
Porter, M. E., & Heppelmann, J. E. (2015). How Smart, Connected Products Are
Transforming Companies. Harvard Business Review, 93(10), 96–114.
Popper, R. (2008). Foresight Methodology. In Foresight for Science, Technology and
Innovation. Springer, 53–67.
Cernaianu, S. (2012). Risk Assessment in Manufacturing Processes. Procedia Economics
and Finance, 3, 123–128.
ISO 31000:2018. Risk Management – Guidelines. International Organization for
Standardization.
Zio, E. (2013). Risk Assessment in Industrial Systems. Reliability Engineering & System
Safety, 110, 1–2.
Hines, A., & Bishop, P. (2015). Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic
Foresight. Social Technologies.
European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. (2020). Occupational Safety and Health
in Manufacturing. EU-OSHA.
Turoff, M., Chumer, M., Van de Walle, B., & Yao, X. (2004). The Design of a Policy
Delphi. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 71(2), 105–123.
